Update from Copenhagen: The "Great Betrayal" Has Begun - Newest targets weak; ag offsets back on the table

In Copenhagen tonight, a leaked UN document on a new proposal from developed countries points to what civil society is calling "The Great Betrayal."

The document concluded that proposals put on the table by rich nations would set the world on a path to a 3 degree temperature increase, equal or above 550 parts per million. This increase would wipe small island nations off the map, threaten the food systems of a large part of Africa and crash small-scale fisheries around the world. By one estimate, a temperature rise of only 2 degrees would put another 600 million people in Africa alone at risk of hunger.

African nations are unlikely to agree to the proposal, and the document may or may not reflect an actual outcome of the talks. What it does reflect however is the seemingly un-breachable divide between what developing countries need to avert disaster and what the global North can or is willing, politically, to deliver.

This comes at the same time that radical proposals to subsidize soil carbon storage (likely through 'biochar', RoundUp Ready GM crops and industrial tree plantations) with carbon offsetting schemes made it back into the draft after having been presumed dead. The proposals would allow wealthy countries to buy carbon credits through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) instead of reducing emissions at home.

The inclusion of agriculture in the CDM is extremely problematic - transaction costs to participate in the program are high, giving structural advantage to large-scale industrial technologies like GM monocultures. Moreover, a recent civil society study of CDM projects found that 75% did not provide any emissions reductions whatsoever.

The combination of the two proposals is being decried by civil society groups on the ground in Copenhagen.

Africa's official position remains 1.5 degrees and 350 parts per million with significant funds and technology transfer to help the developing world adapt.

As negotiators continue through the night, social movements are mobilizing on the outside to continue to press for a strong agreement.